Thursday, August 13, 2009

Offseason In Review: Part I

Now that the off-season is unofficially over, I thought it may be the best idea to look back on the summer that was and dissect the moves that Colangelo has made, and in some cases, not made.


While a general overview of the off-season may suffice, why don't we kick it up a notch and take this player by player.  We will look at their past, present, future and the relevance to our beloved Hogtown Dino's.  It would seem the logical place to start is with the biggest acquisition of the off-season and quite probably the biggest player signing in Raptors history: Hedo Turkoglu.

Since December 14, 2004 the Raptors' biggest problems has been a reliable perimeter scorer, athleticism  and perimeter defense.  There were a few failed attempts to rectify this problems; see Joey Graham, Charlie Villanueva, Anthony Parker and to a lesser extent Jamario Moon.  These attempts, however, were fools gold and lasted-in some cases-far too long.  After a brief experiment trying to re-create the twin towers, Colangelo and his brain trust, accountants, and capologists concocted one of the bigger coups and best trades in franchise history.

Heading into the off-season the options were clear cut black and white: sign Marion to a moderate contract and gain financial flexibility by receiving the mid-level (5.9 million) and bi-annual (1.9 million) exceptions.  This would allow for added depth, but would rob us of a consistent perimeter threat.  The other option would be to renounce the rights to all of the Raptors' free agents (including Marion) and spend the resulting 10 million dollars on a man Colangelo had long coveted in Hedo Turkoglu.  In this scenario, the Raptors would have to forfeit the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions and in essence sacrifice and depth but gain a reliable perimeter scorer.

Well Colangelo decided to take a black and white situation and turn it gray.  He worked out a complex multiplayer trade that would allow the Raptors to sign and trade Marion, receive Turkoglu in a sign and trade, gain two serviceable wing players in Devon George and Antoine Wright and preserve the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions in one swift stroke.

The Good

So what will Turkoglu do for us on the court you ask?  Finally for the first time in almost 5 years we have a legitimate perimeter scorer who can create his own shot.  This is key because if you look back in history, every big man has needed help especially at the end of games.  A wing that can take off some scoring pressure is especially helpful at the end of games.  Lets take a look at some examples:
  • Boston Celtics- Kevin Garnett has Paul Pierce
  • San Antonio Spurs- Tim Duncan has Manu Ginobili
  • Miami Heat- Shaquille O'Neal has Dwayne Wade
  • LA Lakers- Shaquille O'Neal has Kobe Bryant
  • Houston Rockets- Hakeem Olajuwon has Clyde Drexler
  • LA Lakers- Kareem Abdul Jabbar has Magic Johnson
  • LA Lakers- Wilt Chamberlain has Jerry West
I am sure you are catching what I am throwing at this point.  Chris Bosh is an outstanding player but any big man, regardless of how good he is, will inevitably need perimeter scoring to be successful.

The scoring Turkoglu brings is just the first layer.  Turkoglu is an outstanding passer and playmaker.  This takes pressure off of Jose Calderon to always be the only one running the pick and roll with Bosh and Bargnani.  There could be many points during the season where Calderon is playing a similar role as Morris Peterson, Anthony Parker, and to a lesser extent Jason Kapono, camping out in the corner and hitting open 3's.  It is a very real possibility that Turkoglu's scoring average goes down this year, and Jose's scoring average goes up just based on open looks Turkoglu creates.

So Turkoglu benefits Bosh and Calderon.  Plus, having the option of  Turkoglu running the pick and roll with Bargnani, another great shooter, can take the ball to the basket and are very good passers must scare opposing coaches.

In essence, Turkoglu will benefit any player around him, particularily from an offensive standpoint.
 
The Bad

The Raptors were far from the best team defensively last year with their most glaring defensive hole at the wing position.  Raptors wings could not keep their man in front of them in years past and Turkoglu definitely does not bring any relief in that aspect.  Turkoglu is an average to below average defender with very little athleticism or lateral quickness.  While he does have a strong understanding of the game and high basketball IQ, there is no doubt that if he were to be guarding the Kobe's and Lebron's at the end of the game, we would be exposed.

Hedo will be 30 years old when the season starts.  While this is by no means over the hill, players on their second contract (third if you include rookie deals) are usually on the decline as far as efficiency and production.  By giving Turkoglu a 5 year $50 million contract, we may have handcuffed ourselves as soon as 2 years down the road if his production falls off (see Wally Szczerbiak).  Hoever I tend to agree with many who say that Turkoglu is a young 30 years old because he does not rely on athleticism, has only played major minutes the past few seasons and has no injury history.

The Outlook

The key to this acquisition is looking at it in a big picture format.  A worst case scenario would be Bosh leaving for free agency, signing with another team and the Raptors receiving no compensation.  Would you rather go forward with a core of Calderon, Bargani and Turkoglu or Calderon, Bargani and Marion?  The former is much more appealing than the latter.  Add to the equation that with some seasoning and development Demar Derozan could provide similar attributes Marion brings, the Turkloglu acquisition is the clear cut favourite.

Grade: B+

- J.Moore

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