Off-season story lines that went from intriguing to annoying...

While this off-season cannot and will not compare to the rock concert that will ensue next July 1, this off-season had some intriguing story lines to follow.  Aging veteran future hall-of-famers, restricted free agents looking for big deals, the Minnesota Timberwolves, all of these were primed and ready to provide some off-season excitement.  The problem is that they started to lag and drag from speculation in June, excitement in July, boring in August and now down right annoying in September. 

Allen Iverson

Yes he has finally made his decision, he has the comfort of knowing he can feed his family for at least one more year.  This story in particular has taken on so many differant moods and can be seen from a few differant angles.  Coming into this off-season Iverson was looked on as a guy that could be had for cheap and potentially turn a team into a contender if he was put in the right situation.  As his contractual anonymity wore on as the summer did, it actually started to turn sad.  This is a guy that less then 3 years ago was one of the best player if not the best in the league and was thought of as untouchable in Philadelphia.  Like him or hate him, and there aren't many that are in the middle, the guy was one of the pound for pound toughest athletes to play the game and seemingly never took a play off, even if he wasn't a fan of practice (which should be be obvious from his now infamous quote).

Fast forward to September where the only real concrete offers seemed to be from perennial bottom feeders in Memphis (who he eventually settled on) and the LA Clippers.  Miami had been rumoured to have interest but considering how much he ended up signing for (roughly $3 million per year) money could not have been the issue in Miami which makes me think Pat Riley had cold feet.  It goes from sad to annoying when he waffles back and forth between the two with the probable intention of enticing Miami to make a formal offer.  All this because his ego could not take the bruising of being a bench player.  After his proclamation in Detroit that he would rather retire then come off the bench you would have to think that took more then half of the teams that may have been interested in the off-season out of the mix.  It's unfortunate to see a future hall of famer at the end of his career consider the Clippers, but it become annoying when he has no one to blame other then himself.  

Knicks/Restricted Free agents

Note to David Stern:

Nice try with the restricted free agent thing in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement, but coming into the talks in 2011, it has to be changed.

The whole point of restricted free agency back in 1999 when this current CBA was negotiated was an attempt to keep players with their original teams longer.  Reggie Miller had just retired and was thought of as one of the last professional athletes to stay with one team for his whole career.  Stern wanted to try cut down on the free agent carousel so restricted free agency was born.  11 years later and it has become a farce.  Marquee players are not effected by it because they have to power to stay or leave with one call to an agent.  It effects the next tier of free agents and low level free agents that are handcuffed by this provision.  It detracts most other teams from tendering them a contract offer sheet because: 

A) They think the other team will match the offer sheet 

B) Even if there is a chance the restricted free agent, it will lock up any fee agency money that team will have for a week. 

During that said week, their plan "B" free agent target and back up to the back up plan could both be signed by other teams and at the end of the week, the team with the right to match the offer does, and your team is left with nothing.

A prime example of this is the New York Knickerbockers.  Can you believe that as we start training camp  that both David Lee and Nate Robinson both do not have contracts in place for next year?  These are guys that averaged 16.0 ppg, 11.70 rpg and 17.2 ppg, 4.1 apg last year!  Yes they played on the Knicks last year, a team that won 32 games and under the leadership (or lack there of) of Jim Dolan is quickly becoming the Clippers East (or at least the Grizzlies).  Yes David Lee is doing his best to eat his way into the "round mound of rebound" category.  Yes Nate Robinson is quickly becoming Steve Francis lite, but damn, these gentlemen can still play basketball at an extremely high level.  In both cases (especially with Lee) you could argue they are starters on 90% of the leagues teams.  They will probably end up signing qualifying offers with the Knicks which is significantly less then they would make on the open market, and they will probably sign contracts for only 1 year because the elephant in the room is that the Knicks clearly do not like them enough as players to build around them, or include them in their future plans.  In an instant one of these guys could pull a Jorge Garbajosa and shatter their ankle, or knee, or whatever and never end up playing in the NBA again or professional basketball in general.  This could, and should be a major sticking point for the players association come CBA talks in 2011.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Finally the Minnesota Timberwolves...  The mere thought of this organization puts a smile on my face and I'm chuckling right now I have to tell you.  David Kahn may be my favourite person in professional sports right now.  Another executive that has taken over a pretty respectable team, with good basketball minds around the organization (Glen Taylor, Kevin McHale) and decided that there was no place for them under his new regime.  David Kahn, the President and General Manager then decided he would impose his will on the NBA community.  Unfortunately he has made an ass of himself, and diluted the image of the Timberwolves franchise.  

Lets start with his proclamation that going into the off-season, his team were going to be major players in anything NBA.  If your Brian Burke and the Toronto Maple Leafs, maybe you get away with this, if you're David Kahn and the Minnesota Timberwolves you are setting yourself up for some serious zingers.  Most General Manager go into an off-season thinking that they would love to make a big splash, the good ones though would never say this because it creates the pressure to pull through on the promise.  When pressure is on a young or inexperienced GM, things can go a little wonky, you'd think Kahn could maybe ask our friend Mr Babcock about that.

Next came the draft.  The Timberwolves had the 6th pick in the draft and were bound to get a pretty good player (most said the draft was 9 deep), but maybe not a franchise player.  This is when we found out about Mr Kahn's secret addiction.  For some it is the bottle (alchohol), others maybe heroin, or cocaine, but for Kahn it was something far more dangerous; point guards.  

Reports were starting to leak out saying that Minnesota was really in-love with Ricky Rubio and as Rubio's stalk began to fall becuase he did not want to play for certain teams, certain small market teams, certain small market teams in US out-posts (like, Minnesota?), Kahn worked furiously on a deal to acquire another pick higher up in the draft.  When Minnesota acquired the 5th pick from Washington for a couple of good players (Randy Foye, Mike Miller) most thought the price was steep just to gain another pick only one spot in front of their own.  However they we gave Kahn the benefit of the doubt, and thought there had to be some careful planning, strategy, maybe a couple promises that went into this.  The Timberwolves luck had finally come through and their prayers were met when Ricky Rubio was still available at 5.  Kahn could feed his addiction by drafting the best point guard in the draft.  Now with the 6th pick they still had so many options, draft a high flying potential all-star wing to play with Rubio in Demar Derozen, maybe a big banger that could shore up their big rotation in Jordan Hill, or even trade the pick for a quality veteran to play alongside Rubio.  We forget though about Kahn's addiction, so of course when they drafted Jonny Flynn, a young electric point guard out of Syracuse, conventional wisdom was thrown out the window.  In the later part of the draft the Timberwolves quest for a point guard monopoly continued by drafting two more point guards, one was eventually traded but Kahn was still able to feed his addiction for another instant.

After the draft, a mess ensued when to their shock and dismay Ricky Rubio decided not only did he not want to play for Minnesota this year, but also for the next two years and used the team as leverage his European club to trade him to another European team closer to home.  Of course the madness doesn't stop there, after months of Ramon Sessions being held in limbo between the New York Knicks, that don't seem to know their ass from a hole in the ground, and the Milwaukee Bucks who held his rights, Ramon decided to go where he thought he would really feel appreciated.  He went where all point guards go when they are young and talented, he was lured by Kahn and his insatiable addiction to the position.

The bottom line is, in a world where people are going to rehab for anything from alchohol, drugs, racism, or sex addiction, the man really needs to be helped.  For those closest to him, intervene... 

It turned out to be a heck of a summer in some of the worst ways.

- J.Moore

Battle for Starting Shooting Guard

Can I be honest for a moment?

The off-season is over, even if this Banks/Carroll deal goes through, the starting line-up and most of the rotation is set and fairly obvious so there is not much to tweet, twit, chirp or speculate on until the season starts, of course unless your one of those who enjoys speculating on Bosh' which we in this space are not.

One of the only areas left undefined at this point is the clarity around the starting shooting guard spot.  Obviously Jose Calderon will start at the point, Turkoglu at the small forward, Bosh as your power forward and Bargnani in the center spot.  The starting shooting guard however could be one of our weak spots this year with so much unproven talent in that role.  It seems as though Triano has pencilled in Demar Derozen into the starting line-up but why don't we take a look at who might be the best option.

First we must define criteria.  What type of attributes a player must have to fit into this starting spot.  Here are a couple quick things that come to mind:

1. Last option on offense- There is no doubt that the majority of the points this season will be scored by Bosh, Turkoglu and Bargnani.  They all have the potential to be 20 point scorers this season and given Jose Calderon's shooting efficiency he will be a close 4th option in the starting line-up.  Who ever starts as shooting guard will have to be comfortable with virtually no shots and have the ability to create his own offense through offensive rebounds and cuts to the basket.
2. Defense- At this point the rotation is in terrible unbalance as far as offensive and defensive players go.  The starting line (Calderon, Turkoglu, Bosh and Bagnani) are all above average offensive players with below average defensive games.  Much of the defense on this roster is coming off the bench with Nesterovic, Evans, Johnson, Wright and Jack being your best defensive players.  The starting shooting guards first priority has to be defense.
3. Attitude/Ego and lack of either- As a result of these above attributes whomever starts has to understand their role, and for the Raptors to be successful not only accept it but embrace it.  He will also accept the fact that there will probably be a lack of minutes at the spot.

So who fits the criterion the best?  Lets look at the 3 most likely candidates for the job and you can decide on your own.  Here are the most likely 3 players to fill minutes at shooting guard this season:

Demar Derozen 

Derozen is so raw and inexperienced thus far it is hard to tell what his strengths and weaknesses are right now.  His athletic prowess has been well documented, he can jump out of the gym, is quick and fast, two different but key physical attributes, and he has the frame and strength to compete against almost anyone in the NBA.  This all adds up to be a recipe for a great defensive player, the only problem is that defense is as much about experience, knowledge and effort as it is about physical attributes.  These may develop in Derozen but most rookies have a tough time with defense coming into the NBA.

At this point Derozen is best at creating his own offense.  He showed in summer league that he has a very good mid-range jump shot, the type that would be best utilized coming off a pin-down screen from, lets say, Reggie Evans?  He also excelled at filling the lane on the break and taking his man off the bounce and finishing at the rim.  His shooting range is very limited and needs improvement because in this offense spot up 3 point shots will be there for the taking.

Antoine Wright

Antoine Wright has one of the more intriguing story lines coming into the season.  He was selected in 2005, 15th overall in the first round by the New Jersey Nets, some may recall that was one spot before our former whipping post Mr Joseph "The Aviator" Graham.  Others may also recall that at the time of the draft it was not Charlie Villanueva who was the highly prognosticated choice for the Raptors, but the athletic freak Graham, the natural scorer Danny Granger, or the shooter with the potential to be a great all around player in Antoine Wright.  Well the problem is that only one of those players turned out as advertised.  Graham couldn't use any tidbit of athleticism because of the, um, we will call it acumen, a basketball player needs.  The shooter, Antoine Wright couldn't shoot it turns out (career .416 % field goal shooter, .291 % 3 point shooter).

Well after Wright was essentially dumped to Dallas in the trade that saw Jason Kidd traded to Dallas for Devin Harris, he has done what Graham could not do.  He has adapted his game to become a productive and somewhat consistent NBA player.  It is hard to quantify with statistics however reports out of Dallas say that he has become a defensive stopper of sorts.  He started 53 games out of 65 that he played in for Dallas last year and started in 3 of the 5 games in the playoffs doing essentially what the Raptors need their starter to do, play defense against top shooting guards, keep out of the way on offense and leave enough minutes for their talented 6th man (Jason Terry) to explode against teams second unit.

The problem with reports by national writers at times is that if a player does not seem to be good at much but still plays a lot or starts, they proclaim him a defensive stopper because there are no stats to quantify or justify it.  He sounds much like Joey Graham, and you have to wonder if national writers south of the border consider him a defensive presence as well.

Marco Belinelli  

His treatment and role in Golden State has been well documented (in this space as well as others), this coupled with the undeniable talent he has is making Raptors fans all over the country and Italy for that matter salivate.  He has the tools to be a very good player and enough raw skills to compare him to a couple of great players in the league today.  Quite simply, he can pass better then most at his position, has the ball skills of a point guard, he can shoot with depth and efficiency, and while like most European guards he is not the best defender, his mastery of the flop will have more the a few fans chanting RO-CKY!  (After his nickname in Golden State due to his likeness to some famous boxer from the movies)

The Outlook

Judging by that player profiles, you may notice i have inadvertently given away my opinion or bias.  There is no doubt in my mind that next year Marco Belinelli has the potential to be the most effective player and have the greatest impact for the Raptors out of the 3.  So he must be the starting shooting guard correct?  No.  The problem is that if we go back to the criteria and the Raptors "haves" and "have nots" in the starting line-up, Marco does many of the same things as the starters.  He needs to be on the second unit where the only person he will be competing with for offensive touches is Jarrett Jack.  This will give him the freedom and confidence to do what he does best, score the ball and create offense.  Belinelli has the potential to be a 6th man candidate next year, and a quasi Manu Ginobili light.

Demar Derozen has a bright future in the NBA and with the Toronto Raptors.  However unless your rookie is light years ahead mentally, and from a maturity standpoint, you do not start him and ask him to play the likes of Lebron, Vince, Allen, Hamilton, or Butler and thats just naming a few.  It has the potential to kill his confidence and while it does guarantee him minutes, they may not be minutes of the productive variety.  Let Demar come off the bench and fill the lane for Belinelli and Jack while still having the opportunity to create his own offense and have some plays run for him.  He will guard back ups and be able to stay in games longer because he will not be getting in foul trouble trying to chase Ray Allen around screens.

Antoine Wright is the best choice for the starting shooting guard.  He will bring some defensive balance to an offensive heavy line up, he knows how to blend in an offense and pick his spots due to his experience in Dallas, and most importantly he is a veteran that understands his role.  From a political standpoint it would be the best, and easiest option for first year head coach Jay Triano.  It allows him to hide Derozen until he gets his feet under him, also Derozen will not have his flaws exposed playing back ups.  If Wright does not perform, it is easy to pare down his minutes or remove him from the starting line-up all in the name of giving the "rook" a shot.  Of course, if he does work out and plays good defense, you look like a genius balancing your rotation and having two spark plugs off the bench in Belinelli and Derozen.

In the end, it probably doesn't matter.  But man, its fun to speculate these days is it not?

- J.Moore