Battle for Starting Shooting Guard

Can I be honest for a moment?

The off-season is over, even if this Banks/Carroll deal goes through, the starting line-up and most of the rotation is set and fairly obvious so there is not much to tweet, twit, chirp or speculate on until the season starts, of course unless your one of those who enjoys speculating on Bosh' which we in this space are not.

One of the only areas left undefined at this point is the clarity around the starting shooting guard spot.  Obviously Jose Calderon will start at the point, Turkoglu at the small forward, Bosh as your power forward and Bargnani in the center spot.  The starting shooting guard however could be one of our weak spots this year with so much unproven talent in that role.  It seems as though Triano has pencilled in Demar Derozen into the starting line-up but why don't we take a look at who might be the best option.

First we must define criteria.  What type of attributes a player must have to fit into this starting spot.  Here are a couple quick things that come to mind:

1. Last option on offense- There is no doubt that the majority of the points this season will be scored by Bosh, Turkoglu and Bargnani.  They all have the potential to be 20 point scorers this season and given Jose Calderon's shooting efficiency he will be a close 4th option in the starting line-up.  Who ever starts as shooting guard will have to be comfortable with virtually no shots and have the ability to create his own offense through offensive rebounds and cuts to the basket.
2. Defense- At this point the rotation is in terrible unbalance as far as offensive and defensive players go.  The starting line (Calderon, Turkoglu, Bosh and Bagnani) are all above average offensive players with below average defensive games.  Much of the defense on this roster is coming off the bench with Nesterovic, Evans, Johnson, Wright and Jack being your best defensive players.  The starting shooting guards first priority has to be defense.
3. Attitude/Ego and lack of either- As a result of these above attributes whomever starts has to understand their role, and for the Raptors to be successful not only accept it but embrace it.  He will also accept the fact that there will probably be a lack of minutes at the spot.

So who fits the criterion the best?  Lets look at the 3 most likely candidates for the job and you can decide on your own.  Here are the most likely 3 players to fill minutes at shooting guard this season:

Demar Derozen 

Derozen is so raw and inexperienced thus far it is hard to tell what his strengths and weaknesses are right now.  His athletic prowess has been well documented, he can jump out of the gym, is quick and fast, two different but key physical attributes, and he has the frame and strength to compete against almost anyone in the NBA.  This all adds up to be a recipe for a great defensive player, the only problem is that defense is as much about experience, knowledge and effort as it is about physical attributes.  These may develop in Derozen but most rookies have a tough time with defense coming into the NBA.

At this point Derozen is best at creating his own offense.  He showed in summer league that he has a very good mid-range jump shot, the type that would be best utilized coming off a pin-down screen from, lets say, Reggie Evans?  He also excelled at filling the lane on the break and taking his man off the bounce and finishing at the rim.  His shooting range is very limited and needs improvement because in this offense spot up 3 point shots will be there for the taking.

Antoine Wright

Antoine Wright has one of the more intriguing story lines coming into the season.  He was selected in 2005, 15th overall in the first round by the New Jersey Nets, some may recall that was one spot before our former whipping post Mr Joseph "The Aviator" Graham.  Others may also recall that at the time of the draft it was not Charlie Villanueva who was the highly prognosticated choice for the Raptors, but the athletic freak Graham, the natural scorer Danny Granger, or the shooter with the potential to be a great all around player in Antoine Wright.  Well the problem is that only one of those players turned out as advertised.  Graham couldn't use any tidbit of athleticism because of the, um, we will call it acumen, a basketball player needs.  The shooter, Antoine Wright couldn't shoot it turns out (career .416 % field goal shooter, .291 % 3 point shooter).

Well after Wright was essentially dumped to Dallas in the trade that saw Jason Kidd traded to Dallas for Devin Harris, he has done what Graham could not do.  He has adapted his game to become a productive and somewhat consistent NBA player.  It is hard to quantify with statistics however reports out of Dallas say that he has become a defensive stopper of sorts.  He started 53 games out of 65 that he played in for Dallas last year and started in 3 of the 5 games in the playoffs doing essentially what the Raptors need their starter to do, play defense against top shooting guards, keep out of the way on offense and leave enough minutes for their talented 6th man (Jason Terry) to explode against teams second unit.

The problem with reports by national writers at times is that if a player does not seem to be good at much but still plays a lot or starts, they proclaim him a defensive stopper because there are no stats to quantify or justify it.  He sounds much like Joey Graham, and you have to wonder if national writers south of the border consider him a defensive presence as well.

Marco Belinelli  

His treatment and role in Golden State has been well documented (in this space as well as others), this coupled with the undeniable talent he has is making Raptors fans all over the country and Italy for that matter salivate.  He has the tools to be a very good player and enough raw skills to compare him to a couple of great players in the league today.  Quite simply, he can pass better then most at his position, has the ball skills of a point guard, he can shoot with depth and efficiency, and while like most European guards he is not the best defender, his mastery of the flop will have more the a few fans chanting RO-CKY!  (After his nickname in Golden State due to his likeness to some famous boxer from the movies)

The Outlook

Judging by that player profiles, you may notice i have inadvertently given away my opinion or bias.  There is no doubt in my mind that next year Marco Belinelli has the potential to be the most effective player and have the greatest impact for the Raptors out of the 3.  So he must be the starting shooting guard correct?  No.  The problem is that if we go back to the criteria and the Raptors "haves" and "have nots" in the starting line-up, Marco does many of the same things as the starters.  He needs to be on the second unit where the only person he will be competing with for offensive touches is Jarrett Jack.  This will give him the freedom and confidence to do what he does best, score the ball and create offense.  Belinelli has the potential to be a 6th man candidate next year, and a quasi Manu Ginobili light.

Demar Derozen has a bright future in the NBA and with the Toronto Raptors.  However unless your rookie is light years ahead mentally, and from a maturity standpoint, you do not start him and ask him to play the likes of Lebron, Vince, Allen, Hamilton, or Butler and thats just naming a few.  It has the potential to kill his confidence and while it does guarantee him minutes, they may not be minutes of the productive variety.  Let Demar come off the bench and fill the lane for Belinelli and Jack while still having the opportunity to create his own offense and have some plays run for him.  He will guard back ups and be able to stay in games longer because he will not be getting in foul trouble trying to chase Ray Allen around screens.

Antoine Wright is the best choice for the starting shooting guard.  He will bring some defensive balance to an offensive heavy line up, he knows how to blend in an offense and pick his spots due to his experience in Dallas, and most importantly he is a veteran that understands his role.  From a political standpoint it would be the best, and easiest option for first year head coach Jay Triano.  It allows him to hide Derozen until he gets his feet under him, also Derozen will not have his flaws exposed playing back ups.  If Wright does not perform, it is easy to pare down his minutes or remove him from the starting line-up all in the name of giving the "rook" a shot.  Of course, if he does work out and plays good defense, you look like a genius balancing your rotation and having two spark plugs off the bench in Belinelli and Derozen.

In the end, it probably doesn't matter.  But man, its fun to speculate these days is it not?

- J.Moore