Posting up the Regular season- Trends are a funny thing

Did anyone really think they were going to loose?

A funny thing basketball is at times, there are days when a team can do nothing wrong but you just have this feeling they are still going to loose (see games versus San Antonio and Dallas).

Then there are games where to locals can do nothing right and the prevailing instinct is one of optimism. So when I looked up at the television in the local watering hole and saw that the Raptors were down by 20 to the Clippers, one of the leagues worst offensive teams, without 2 of their best players (Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon), I immediately looked over at my partner in crime and debauchery for the night and said 'the Raps are going to win, and Belinelli is going to score 20.'

One for two isn't bad, and I was close on the 2nd.

Trends

1st Quarter Ineptitude

It's getting to the point where the more surprising thing would be if the Raptors had a good defensive quarter and the combined point total is under 60. Toronto might as well spot the opposition 10 points and just start the tilt in the 2nd quarter. It would save everyone a little time, keep the players a little more fresh and presumably not impact the game in any significant way.

Something has to be done to buck this trend. Triano has to look into his bag of tricks and use anything he can as a motivational tool. Against bad teams, these 1st quarters may not be the devil that takes them down but over the course of the season more times then not, bad 1st quarter performances are going to cost Toronto wins. Those wins may end up being the difference between being in the valuable 4 or 5 spot (not having to play Orlando, Boston or Cleveland), or could even cost us a playoff spot.

Some would suggest a change to the starting line up. This has to be a last resort for Toronto. The biggest flaw in our first quarter performances is our defense and in particular our lack of lateral quickness. Those who lack lateral quickness in the starting line up? Bargnani, Calderon and Turkoglu and none of those men are going to the bench anytime soon so the logical choice would have to be DeMar.

Bringing Antoine Wright into the starting line up would be the only move that makes sense and restore some balance to the starting line up. Those who read here often know that I have been a proponent of Wright starting over DeRozen since the offseason but at this point it has to be handled very carefully.

Coming off a tough game, maybe his worst of his young career DeRozen's confidence might be shaky and I think Triano has to let the rest of the month play out and see where the 1st quarter defense is come December 1.

The 4th quarter defensive juggernaut that is the Toronto Raptors

As someone far smarter and experienced then I put it, if your going to be really bad for a quarter it might as well be the 1st, and if your going to be really good for a quarter, it might as well be the 4th.

Now two games may be to soon to call it a trend because the 1st quarter woes have been around since the second game of the season but if this mini aberration continues into a trend this will be a fun team to watch, especially if they can manage to just play even in the 1st quarter.

The intensity levels are a mystery. I have no idea, and I don't think anyone connected with the team has any idea, why the Raptors come out so flat to start the game and continually raise their intensity level by quarter but it is pleasantly frustrating.

The one piece of tangible evidence that I can point out that allows this team to win is the coaching. Jay Triano seems to be a step ahead of opposing coaches on most nights and it is becoming more and more impressive. Against the bulls he made the decision to switch on the pick and roll to prevent the point guards getting into the paint. Against the Clippers he made the decision to double team Chris Kaman to throw off his rhythm.

Double teaming an opposing big man is not hard to come up with, and not necessarily the impressive part. Just when Kaman is getting comfortable with the double team, and starting to see where the double team is coming from Triano pulls the rug out from under him by not sending an extra defender.

That game of cat and mouse wins the Raptors only a few defensive possessions, but those few are enough to change the momentum.

Rebounding

It was pointed out in one of the local media hubs lately that the Raptors are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league at an average of only 40 rebounds per game. This of course is why they are loosing games.

The rebounding is actually very misleading. While they are near the bottom with only 40 rebounds per game there are two very good reasons for that; their great offense and bad defense. The bottom line is that when the Raptors play neither team misses often and as a product of that, there are not many boards to get.

The real statistic to look at is rebound differential. Take away the one game against San Antonio which is an outlier on the scatter plot graph and the Raptors are about even in rebound differential. The return of Reggie Evans should actually make us a pretty decent rebounding team.

The Bench

From the 'not entirely surprising' variety of statements, our bench has been one of our strengths. The crew has burst into the games with energy and defense and have usually been the cue for the turn-arounds in the 2nd and 3/4th quarters. They average close to 30 point per game and that is a huge lift.

The catalyst for that attack Friday night was Marco Belinelli. Scoring 15 points and playing 30 minutes, he was the key to the victory and without his energy, defense (ya, you saw it right) and efficient scoring the Raptors would not have been able to cut the deficit to under 10 in the second quarter and give Toronto a chance to win.

Amir Johnson for the second consecutive game came up big (7 points and 7 rebounds) off the bench and to steal a puck-head phrase, was the 2nd star of the night. His rebounding and tenacity under the basket was paramount to our finish.

If these two guys could develop these performances into trends it would go along way to getting us into a high seed in the playoffs.

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Tonight the Toronto plays the Raptors South in the Phoenix Suns at 8:00pm eastern time and this one should be a lot of fun to watch. These are arguably the two best offenses in the league and hopefully the two teams show up with their A-game's and we can all see a defensive classic.

The one thing that separates Phoenix from Toronto though? Steve Nash, plain and simple.

My prediction- Toronto-173, Phoenix 199

- J.Moore