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1 win, 2 losses

The beauty of sport, even involving the Raptors, is that just when you think you have figured it all out and the ball is crystal clear things get thrown in upheaval by a meaningful unexpected win, or a surprisingly devastating loss.

The piece almost wrote itself, the Raptors were rolling, only losing to a team (albeit twice) that is superior to them in many ways and has always been a thorn in their side. The claw wearing honorary Torontonians looked like they had turned the corner and were going make a push for home court in the playoffs and what do they do? Give up a 23 point lead in Indiana, a team at a boiling point teetering on the edge, and lose, obviously...

This is a bad loss, there is no one that will dispute that, however it may not be as bad as some may tell you. Entering the opening tip I thought that this may be a tricky game because historically when the Raptors play teams that can score in bunches Toronto plays with an indifference on the defensive end that allows those teams to right any offensive ineptitude that may be plaguing them throughout the contest. This certainly happened last night.

It is not that the Raptors didn't compete. Just take a look at the game footage of Andrea Bargnani, who at least one dope (me) believes may have had one of his best games of his career. Bargnani was fully 'engaged' in this game right from the start, his shot was not falling but he was incredibly active on the defensive end finishing the game with a career high 17 rebounds and 3 blocked shots.

Chris Bosh went to the 'freebee line' as an old coach used to call it, 20 times in the contest and was trying actively to make something happen. Even Turkoglu, who needs to be much better than he is right now, looked very active on both ends of the court. This was prevalent early on as he tried to make positive things happen for his team.

While the Raptors were clicking on every cylinder they had offensively; Antoine Wright hit a shot... A 45 foot shot no less, Rasho Nesterovic looked like an offensive juggernaut in the 10 minutes he played. The problem was Toronto did not play with the defensive urgency they had played with so often in the last month and let a streaky offensive team right the ship.

These Raptors over the past 5 years or so have been notorious, as most teams are I would suggest, when it comes to let down games. Are they a mentally tough team? I would still say no. I do believe though, that there is more mental toughness in this team than they have displayed some nights and this may be a wake up call for a team looking to turn the corner.

At this point in the season there are no must win games, every game is a must win there are only missed opportunities. There have been many so far and there will continue to be, the hope is that they are few and far between.

With 3 days off until the next game, plenty of time to prepare, practice and think about what went wrong in this last affair, hopefully a regained focus will be the result.

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Touch Passes

Mendoza line no more?

It has been declared more than a few times in this 'internet code' that this team is merely the Mendoza line for NBA teams, and that we should not expect much more than to win against bad teams handily and fail to compete against good teams.

Well I know it's hard to believe, I have a hard time writing this next line as well, but maybe I was wrong. For most Raptor fans, the fact that I may be wrong has never felt so right.

As discussed before there were the 'statement' games against a foggy looking San Antonio team that looked like they were still in their hotel room for most of the first half. There was also the win against an Orlando team that was in disarray, that made Raptor faithful believe just a little more.

What this piece will point to is the Boston game 2 days ago. No they did not win and there weren't many points in the game where it looked like they were going to win but what they did do, in a rather elementary statement, was compete. That cannot be discredited as something one would expect because all too often against Boston over the last 3 years versions of the Raptors have showed up looking like scared children about to get beaten on by a big brother.

It looked for one afternoon at least like the little brother had grown up, and may be gaining some confidence.

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Finding an Identity?

Many times when a team is struggling or when a team is great pundits and prognosticators, analysts and panelists will talk about identity. What a team 'hangs its hat on' when push comes to shove. Considering most Raptors have never been in a fight before this never seemed to be something that was prevalent in past versions of the Raptors. Over this last month however, we have been seeing more keys to success that have developed into this team's identity.

We all know what the coaches are preaching; hold the opposition to a low field goal percentage, pack the paint, contest long jump shots. That makes sense.

We all know that when the Raptors hold the opposition to under 100 points they are undefeated. We also know the new indicator that the last 10 times DeMar DeRozen has scored 10 or more points, the Raptors are victorious.

What had become clear only anecdotally is that over this recent hot stretch it seemed that when the Raptors won games, their second unit was forcing turnovers and creating fast break points. This seemed to be the key to winning games over the last month or so, so why not looked closer.

14 games:

9 wins, 5 losses

In 9 wins the Raptors forced 13.5 turnovers per game.
In 5 losses the Raptors forced 13.2 turnovers per game.

Obviously my logic and eyes had deceived. However, when looking at fast break points, things become clear.

In 9 wins the Raptors have averaged 19.7 fast break points per game.
In 5 losses the Raptors have averaged 10 fast break points per game.

To further the point, omit the one outlier from this (the loss against Boston when Toronto had 26 fast break points) and Toronto has averaged only 6 fast break points per game.

It becomes clear that the Raptors need to push the tempo in order to be successful, we had heard this lament before, and now here is the evidence.

The other piece of anecdotal analysis that got me thinking (which is utterly silly) was when the coaching staff focused on limiting 3 point field goals made by the opposition in wins against Orlando and San Antonio. It worked, and the thought crossed my mind that with NBA so focused on 3 point shooting instead of post play in this new era, could this be the key defensively?

The numbers would indicate so:

18 previous games

11 wins and 7 losses

In 11 wins the Raptors held opposition to 4.3- 3 point field goals made.
In 7 losses the Raptors allowed opposition to make 9- 3 point field goals

A discrepancy of 14.1 points per game.

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The Dino's are now off until Friday when they will play the Knickerbockers in New York and I would expect a very well prepared and energetic Toronto team with 3 days of rest. The key will be controlling Nate Robinson who tends to play well against Toronto and also Danillo Gallinari who has a mean stroke from 3 point land.

For Toronto it will be to push the ball, but the key is to do it efficiently. New York's depth is an issue for them so it would be wise to wear out their starters, but the key will be discipline and not getting into a 3 point shoot out.

- J.Moore